Saturday, January 03, 2009

A Black Swan

Or, rather, a black Cardinal. To fill you in, the Atlanta Falcons are playing the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card around of the playoffs. All week, the pundits gave the Cardinals very little chance. According to them, the Cardinals just didn't have the talent - specifically in both aspects of the run game - to keep up with the Falcons. Though there was only a 2 point line, most "experts" picked the Falcons, and even more agreed that the Cardinals would have a tough time running the ball or stopping the run.

The second quarter just started, but so far, in case you haven't noticed, the Falcons are playing outside their mind. Specifically, the Cardinals are running the ball at will, with Edgerrin James tearing it up. On the flip side, the Falcons are having very little success running the football, and the Cardinals' defense is simply stuffing them.

How could so many people, who supposedly know so much, be so wrong about the way that this match up (especially the running match up) would play out?

Cool sports example of the type of prediction bias (or, rather, our inability to make even reasonably accurate predictions) that Taleb makes a focus in Black Swan. Very interesting to see it so plainly in something I follow.


  1. A number of the very respected replica chanel handbags retailers are usually considered to be bought at L . a ., a spot identified regarding glamour and also school. L . a . can be a metropolis regarding type and also trend, which gives tremendous satisfaction and also delight to be able to consumers although purchasing replica louis vuitton bags retailers. Several purse retailers regarding L . a . offer you massive lower price coming from hublot replica simply because which they importance treasured rocks and also metallic immediately with out concerning virtually any middleman.

  2. Once I got over the sticker shock I began to attending about for some websites that action gucci replica Handbags. Although it is appetizing to buy a replica because of the cost, I absolutely wouldn't recommend it. A hermes replica is just that, a acting for the absolute thing. If you anticipate about it why would you buy an apery if the absolute affair is what bent your eye?As I said it is appetizing but you will consistently apperceive it is a fake. I just anticipate the advised should get the acclaim for what they have done. There is annihilation like an aboriginal artist handbag.If you adulation top superior louis vuitton replica bags and shoes but can't allow the artist prices, again you should apperceive that a Gucci aperture stores is your best friend. As a appearance house, Gucci is able-bodied accepted for replica watches perfecting the art of making archetypal momogram handbags that can bear the analysis of time. In the face of changing trends they accept managed to break advanced of the ambit by consistently afterlight thier designs and silhouettes while application the breeding that defines their style. Many of breitling replica leather accoutrements are still hand-stiched and use the acclaimed GG bolt which we accept all appear to know and love. Despite their acclaimed history which includes abundant ups and downs, Gucci still remains chichi and able-bodied put calm as ever.

  3. ray ban sunglasses outlet,
    puma outlet,
    calvin klein outlet,
    ugg outlet store,
    thomas sabo,
    cheap ugg boots,
    mizuno running shoes,
    mont blanc pens,
    oakley sunglasses wholesale,
    salomon shoes,
    cowboys jerseys,
    fred perry shirts,
    kobe shoes,
    dallas cowboys jersey,
    discount oakley sunglasses,
    mlb jerseys,
    coach outlet online,
    michael kors outlet online,
    chiefs jersey,
    nike air max,
    tods shoes,


  4. ان النقل الدولى هام ويحتاج الى مهارة ودقة ليتم على اكمل وجه اعالى الخليج تقدم افضل خدمات النقل الدولى لانها افضل
    شركة نقل عفش من الرياض الى الامارات شركة شحن عفش من الرياض الى الامارات
    وتوفر ايضا النقل الدولى الى الاردن
    شركة نقل عفش من الرياض الى الاردن شركة شحن عفش من الرياض الى الاردن